NORTHRIDGE, Calif. — With one match remaining in the regular season, the UC Santa Barbara Men's Soccer team controls its own destiny. The Gauchos enter Saturday's season finale atop The Big West table, knowing a win will keep them there and guarantee the no. 1 seed for the conference tournament. A win (or draw) would also see them finish unbeaten in Big West play for the first time since 2013, and extend their overall undefeated streak to 12 games for the first time since 2004.
 
PLAYOFF PERMUTATIONS
The Gauchos are already guaranteed to host at least one match in this year's Big West Championship, as the lowest seed they could finish with is fourth. The matters of when and against whom are the only things left to settle, as Cal State Fullerton, Cal Poly and UC Irvine are all still in contention for top spot alongside Santa Barbara.
 
With a win, that top spot belongs to the Gauchos no matter what happens elsewhere. Only the Titans could match Santa Barbara's points total, with a win of their own against UC San Diego, but the Gauchos' 1-0 win at Titan Stadium on the opening night of conference action gives them the head-to-head tiebreaker.
 
Santa Barbara could still get the top seed with a draw, though it would require Cal State Fullerton to draw as well, something they have not done in their last five games. Should that happen and Cal Poly and UC Irvine both win, the top four would all be tied with 17 points; thankfully, the tiebreaker would go to Santa Barbara thanks to their 2-0-1 record against the other three. In the (more likely) scenario that the Titans win and jump the Gauchos if Santa Barbara draws, they do still hold the tiebreaker in a three-way split with Cal Poly and UC Irvine as well as the head-to-head tiebreaker with Cal Poly. To win a one-on-one tie with the Anteaters, the Gauchos will have to hope that UC Irvine does not beat UC Riverside by more than a single goal.
 
For the Gauchos to gain the top spot with a loss would take Cal State Fullerton losing to a UC San Diego team that has just one win all season, as well as the Anteaters dropping points at home to Riverside and the Mustangs dropping points on the road in Bakersfield. Santa Barbara needs to finish as one of the top two teams to secure a first-round bye in The Big West Championship. Should they accomplish that, they will host a semifinal match on Saturday, Nov. 8 at 7 p.m. If the Gauchos finish as the no. 3 or no. 4 seed, they will host a first-round match on Wednesday, Nov. 5 at 7 p.m. at Harder Stadium. 
 
LAST TIME OUT
Santa Barbara stands atop the conference table thanks largely to some help elsewhere last Saturday, as the Titans were handed a loss by UC Davis, but the Gauchos have kept themselves in the race by simply refusing to lose. With a win over Sacramento State and a scoreless draw against UC Irvine last week, Santa Barbara is now unbeaten in its last 11 matches, including all eight Big West contests. The Gauchos' defensive record has been nearly spotless in conference play, allowing just two goals and keeping six clean sheets. With nine total shutouts on the season, 52.9% of their total games, Santa Barbara ranks 22^nd in all of Division I by shutout percentage, and freshman goalkeeper Owen Beninga, who has anchored the back line in seven of those, is statistically the best goalie in the country. The Wyoming Wall leads all of Division I with a 0.966 save percentage and 0.116 goals-against average, with his seven shutouts good for 16^th.
 
While last week was yet another display of the Gauchos' defensive dominance, it was also an example of their struggles in attack, especially on Saturday. Santa Barbara controlled the game and out-shot UC Irvine, 21-10, but failed to score as they are still looking for an attacking focal point. Buba Fofanah had been playing that role, scoring game-winners against Cal State Fullerton and UC Riverside to start conference play, but has been hampered by a hamstring injury. The strongest candidate to fill the role in his stead has been Steinar Bjornsson, who was named The Big West Freshman of the Week on Monday. The freshman from Iceland scored his first career goal, the game-winner, against Sacramento State last Wednesday and was horrendously unlucky to not find the net again against UC Irvine on Saturday, firing nine shots, four of which took saving. He leads the team and ranks third in the Big West, averaging 2.35 shots per game.
 
SCOUTING THE MATADORS
At the beginning of the season, it looked like CSUN would be the team to beat in The Big West, as the Matadors went unbeaten through their first eight games, with a Grand Canyon team that has been receiving votes in the national ranking polls the only squad to beat them in non-conference play. However, a home loss to Cal State Bakersfield flipped CSUN's season and the Matadors have now not won in their last seven matches.
 
Statistically, the Matadors are a more extreme version of the Gauchos. Defensively sound, CSUN has conceded a Big West-best 12 goals all season and goalkeeper Dorian Drucks is the only netminder in the conference with more shutouts than Beninga (8). But offensively, they are in a rut, scoring the second-fewest goals in The Big West this season (10) and having failed to find the net in their last five matches. Their top scorer, Enrique Pineda, has started just once in conference play and has not spent more than an hour on the pitch since the beginning of September. He was the last man to score for CSUN, 491 minutes ago.
 
FOLLOW ALONG
Kickoff from Matador Soccer Field in Northridge is set for 7 p.m. on Saturday, simultaneous with all of the matches in The Big West on the season's final day. The game will be broadcast live on ESPN+ with live stats available through ucsbgauchos.com.